Chinese coercion scenarios of Taiwan: consequences for Europe and Australia

The Taiwan issue assumes an increasingly international dimension in a context of growing China-US rivalry. China is slowly but effectively stepping up pressure against Taiwan and experts wonder how far China will go on the escalation ladder of coercion. Australia and Europe however are, like most of the rest of the world, increasingly aware that a cross-strait crisis would have direct political, security and economic implications for themselves. China’s coercive toolkit is vast and includes both kinetic and non-kinetic measures. Therefore, what are the most likely scenarios of evolution of the situation in the Taiwan strait? Is increasing coercion more probable than the outbreak of a war? If so, what will this coercion look like?

Frédéric Grare from the ANU National Security College will be joined by Dr. Mathieu Duchatel from Paris’ Institut Montaigne, Dr. Mark Harrison from the University of Tasmania, Professor Rory Medcalf, Head of the National Security College, and Susan Dietz-Henderson, from the ANU National Security College to discuss the potential consequences of these various scenarios for Australia and Europe and examine their range of options.