National mobilisation during war: past insights, future possibilities
Executive summary
National mobilisation involves purposefully using a society’s resources to support achieving national objectives in time of war, crisis or disaster. In the case of war, national mobilisation will usually be focused on enhancing the nation’s defence forces including increasing their capabilities, size and ability to generate higher activity levels. The additional workforce, money and material needed for these changes to the armed forces can, in almost all cases, only be generated by the civil sector of society.
The amount the boundary shifts between the defence and civil sectors varies with the context. Different strategic circumstances and the different strategies nations adopt will result in different national mobilisations as regards scope, nature, scale and duration. However, while a nation’s strategies are a choice, its strategic circumstances are less discretionary. Crucially, the future strategic circumstances are always uncertain, and this makes mobilisation policymaking and planning problematic.
This paper aims to provide a structured way of thinking about mobilisation policymaking and planning that takes this inherent uncertainty into account.
It uses two approaches: alternative futures and historical case studies. By projecting the known past into the uncertain future, the paper generates key insights on national mobilisation issues relevant to defence strategic thinking, doctrine and processes across a range of strategic circumstances.
The paper begins by discussing nine historical mobilisation case studies. It situates each within one quadrant of the Australian Defence Force (ADF) Future Operating Environment (FOE) 2035 framework. Each quadrant represents an alternative future and, thus, a different strategic circumstance. This framework is sufficiently broad such that Australia’s plausible future national mobilisations are likely to fall within its boundaries.
The paper’s final chapter uses the case study analysis to first determine general national mobilisation principles applicable across all four futures; and second, to lay out some specific national mobilisation aspects particularly relevant to each future individually.
Key points
- National mobilisation involves using a society’s resources to support achieving national objectives in time of war, crisis or disaster.
- There are eight general national mobilisation principles that are applicable across the four quadrants of the Australian Defence Force (ADF) Future Operating Environment (FOE) 2035 framework: fragmented future, multipolar future, multilateral future and networked future.
- Nine historical case studies are discussed, situated within the ADF FOE 2035 framework.
- Different strategic circumstances result in different national mobilisations as regard scope, nature, scale and duration.
Policy recommendations
- Australia’s future national mobilisation needs are unsure, although the past suggests ways that national mobilisation might be undertaken. National mobilisation to some degree will be necessary if another war is fought.
- Using the alternative futures methodology, mobilisation policymaking and planning is made less difficult.
- A fragmented future means national mobilisation would draw on domestic resources supplemented by whatever could be accessed from allies and friends in the global marketplace.
- In a multipolar future, national mobilisation would be supported by Australian allies and would be likely threatened by adversaries.
- In a multilateral future, national mobilisation would be a blend of Australian or global resources, with governmental control of society little changed from peacetime.
- In a networked future, national mobilisation is a shared activity involving defence and society, whole-of-society by design that makes use of market forces to allocated scarce resources.
