Policy fit for the future: the Australian Government Futures primer

Futures is a systematic exploration of probable, possible and preferable future developments to inform present-day policy, strategy and decision-making. It uses multiple plausible scenarios of the future to anticipate and make sense of disruptive change. It is also known as strategic foresight.

Futures in policy is first and foremost about translating insights into action: what can the government do now to positively influence long term change and ensure Australians will thrive in a range of possible future worlds. 

Through a range of structured participatory tools, Futures can help policy teams to:

• develop more and better policy choices for government decision-makers;
• identify emerging strategic risks and opportunities;
• create more resilient and flexible policies that can succeed in multiple possible futures -not just the one we assume. 

Futures does not attempt to predict events. In our volatile, uncertain and complex worldthis is rarely possible, especially in the long term. Instead, Futures assumes that the fundamental business of government is building the future we want – actively shaping change through policy.

This primer provides an overview of Futures methodologies and their practical application to policy development and advice. It is a first step for policy teams and officers interested in Futures: providing you with a range of flexible tools, ideas and advice you can adapt to your own policy challenges and environments.

This primer was developed by the Policy Projects and Taskforce Office in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet. We have drawn on expertise from inside and outside of government –including through our project partners, the Futures Hub at the National Security College in the Australian National University. 

This primer has been written by policy officers, for policy officers –with a focus on practical and tested approaches that can support you to create policy fit for the future.