No, Mr Ambassador: Taiwan has nothing in common with Tassie

“Taiwan is a province of China, just as Tasmania is a state of Australia,” wrote China’s ambassador to Australia in these pages on Monday. Both Taiwan and Tasmania were inhabited by Indigenous people before Dutch forces in the first case, and British in the second, became involved in either. But that’s about as much as they share in common.

Since ambassador Xiao Qian highlights what he sees as parallels between Taiwan and Tasmania, it’s appropriate to dig deeper, uncovering instead the deep disparities.

Taiwan was first colonised by the Dutch (1624-1662). The Manchus who conquered China and ruled it as the Qing dynasty (1691-1911) took a sporadic but growing interest, eventually declaring it a province in 1887. But only eight years later the dynasty ceded Taiwan to Japan after military defeat.

Mao Zedong told American journalist Edgar Snow in a 1937 interview: “We will extend them (the Koreans) our enthusiastic help in their struggle for independence. The same thing applies for Taiwan.”

The Republic of China seized control of Taiwan following Japan’s defeat in 1945, then took the remnants of its army there following its own loss to Mao’s Chinese Communist Party, and the establishment in 1949 of the People’s Republic of China, which has never ruled Taiwan.

British whalers and sealers established bases in Tasmania at the very start of the 19th century, and the British governor in New South Wales built military outposts to support them from 1803. It became a colony, then in 1856 a state.

In 1899, 94 per cent of the Tasmanians eligible to vote supported its federation with Australia, the largest majority of the states. The Australian Constitution provides a complex route for states to withdraw, but secession moves in the 1920s petered out, and more recent straw-polling in Tasmania has failed to indicate significant support for this.

The Kuomintang (Nationalist Party) that ruled the Republic of China that succeeded the Qing dynasty, re-established itself in Taiwan following its defeat by the communist forces, but 35 years ago formally withdrew any claims over mainland China. The CCP’s insistence on recognition as ruling “one China” is not these days contested significantly anywhere including within Taiwan, unlike its own claim also to rule the island.

Tasmania has a population of 575,000 and annual economic output of $44bn. Taiwan’s population is 23 million, its output $1.17 trillion. Taiwan’s average wealth per adult is 11 times higher than China’s.

In a recent poll in Taiwan, 86 per cent favoured maintaining the status quo – also supported by Australia’s major parties – with 72 per cent disagreeing that Taiwan is part of China, and 83 per cent insisting that Taiwan’s future should be determined by its own people.

In Pew Research polling two years ago, 67 per cent of respondents described themselves as Taiwanese, 28 per cent as both Taiwanese and Chinese, and 3 per cent as primarily Chinese. Of those aged 18-34, 83 per cent see themselves as Taiwanese.

Ambassador Xiao wrote that “blood runs thicker than water”. Yet 56 per cent polled by Pew say they are not emotionally attached to China, and 66 per cent believe China is a major threat.

Ten years ago independent senator Jacqui Lambie said her “dream for Tasmania” would see the island leaving the Australian Federation. But while re-elected, she received little support for such a move, which she no longer advances. Ambassador Xiao says: “It is clearly stated in the official legal opinions of the UN that ‘the United Nations considers Taiwan as a province of China’.”

On August 21, 2024, Australia’s Senate passed unanimously a motion – proposed jointly by Labor and Liberal senators – that UN Resolution 2758 of 1971 “does not establish the PRC’s sovereignty over Taiwan and does not determine the future status of Taiwan in the UN”. Australia itself, while holding its own “one China policy”, has not formally committed to a position on Taiwan’s identity.

Many Tasmanians might preference their identity as Tasmanian first and Australian second, but very few would go on to disavow their Australian-ness or Australian citizenship. Tasmania is structurally dependent on federal economic support.

Taiwan has a standing military force of about 160,000, with a further 1.6 million reservists, up to 500 combat aircraft and a substantial navy. It polices and defends its own borders. Tasmania has a police force of about 1400.

Taiwan elects its own leaders. At the last election, 72 per cent of eligible voters turned out, compared with 60 per cent in Britain and 63 per cent in the US. Its legislature passes laws that are imposed through an independent judicial system. Tasmanians, via their elected government, exercise a wide range of authority within their own jurisdiction, compared with the PRC’s provinces, which operate within a unitary, one-party state. China is unique among large states in maintaining a centralised, not federal, structure.

Ambassador Xiao should be applauded for stating, in conclusion, “we hope Australia will keep ahead of the historical trend on the Taiwan question”. It’s historically intricate, it’s complex, but it’s also very important for our role in our own region that we all “keep ahead”, watch carefully what’s happening, and staunchly back peace and stability.